Multilevel Index Decomposition of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions and Their Decoupling from Economic Growth in Northwest China

Rapid economic growth in Northwest China has been accompanied by a dramatic increase in carbon emissions. Based on the two-level Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, this study decomposes changes in energy-related carbon emissions in Northwest China during 1995–2012 from the regional and provincial perspectives. Further, by constructing an expanded decomposition model of the decoupling index, this paper quantitatively analyzes delinking indicators of economic activity and environmental pressure in Northwest China. The results indicate that: (1) at both regional and provincial levels, economic activity effects play a crucial role in increasing carbon emissions, whereas improvements of energy efficiency appear as the main factor in curbing carbon missions; (2) the significance of influencing factors of CO2 emissions varies across provinces. The role of economic activity in Shannxi is more pronounced compared to that of the other four provinces, as well as the role of population in Xinjiang; (3) when the decoupling relationship is considered, “relative decoupling” and “no decoupling” are the main characteristics under investigation during the examined period. Whereas “strong decoupling” was only identified in 2007 and 2009; (4) the current extensive pattern of economic growth in Northwest China poses a serious threat to the decoupling process. Furthermore, the coal-based energy structure also hinders the decoupling process. According to these results, some policy recommendations are proposed.